Meteorologists are being threatened and abused for forecasting and reporting record high temperatures and weather extremes.
Last week Spain recorded the highest April temperature on record (38.8 °C) following on from last year, 2022, its hottest year since records began.
Nearly 75 percent of Spain is susceptible to desertification due to climate change. Water reservoirs are at half their capacity and farmers unions say 60 percent of agricultural land is “suffocating” from lack of rain. Spain has asked Brussels to help by activating the EU’s agriculture crisis reserve funds (when many other areas of Europe are also suffering from drought).
Long drowned villages emerging from bottoms of desiccating reservoirs: The ruins of the Sant Romà church, exposed due to historically low water levels in the Sau reservoir, Spain in April. Photographer: Angel Garcia/Bloomberg
Spain’s government on Friday came to the defence of the AEMET weather agency, which has suffered threats and abuse from climate conspiracy theorists over its forecasts during a record drought.
“Murderers”, “Criminals”, “You’ll pay for this” and “We’re watching you” are just some of the anonymous messages sent to AEMET in recent weeks on social media, by email and even by phone.
The threats were responding to forecasts and reports published by AEMET, notably over last week’s early heatwave, when Spain registered its hottest-ever temperature for April, reaching 38.8 degrees Celsius (101.8 degrees Fahrenheit) in Cordoba.
Where the European/Mediterranean region is concerned, Spain is not the only country facing water crises. Even before the end of winter, the Guardian’s article of 4 March, ‘Very precarious’: Europe faces growing water crisis as winter drought worsens, Austria, Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland were all suffering problems from shortages of rain and runoff from the small amount of accumulated winter snow.
Australia has already lost a lot of agricultural productivity because of three years of La Niña flooding. For several months we couldn’t even buy frozen french fries (shades of the Irish Potato Famine). This may well be followed by even more damaging droughts when the next major El Niño surpasses the last two to reach 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial baseline, as seems likely given past trends.
As a target for those with an often visceral distrust of the established science of human-caused global heating, the Bureau of Meteorology’s temperature record might be seen as ground zero. Photograph: Bill Bachman/Alamy / from the article.
Former Bureau of Meteorology staff say claims they deliberately manipulated data to make warming seem worse are being fed by a ‘fever swamp’ of climate denial.
For more than a decade, climate science deniers, rightwing politicians and sections of the Murdoch media have waged a campaign to undermine the legitimacy of the Bureau of Meteorology’s temperature records.
Those records say Australia has warmed by 1.4C since 1910, the year when the bureau’s main quality-controlled climate dataset starts.
Extremely hot days come along more often than they used to, and the warming trends are happening everywhere, at all times of the year.
As a target for those with an often visceral distrust of the established science of human-caused global heating, the bureau’s temperature record might be seen as ground zero.
“This has frankly been a concerted campaign,” says climate scientist Dr Ailie Gallant, of Monash University. “But this is not about genuine scepticism. It is harassment and blatant misinformation that has been perpetuated.”
Attacking messengers because you dislike or fear the messages only impedes circulating knowledge that might help to solve real-world problems and save your life or the lives of your family members. That global warming causes record temperatures and droughts is a fact that causes problems…. Denying the fact does not make the problems go away! It only keeps the problem from being solved until it is too late to do anything effective.
When there are too many crop failures over too wide an area for too long, famine is the consequence, and can lead to. Continuing famine leads to starvation and, eventually, mass deaths.
International group of climatologists launch a set of annually updated climate indicators to track human induced global warming through time.
This decade is absolutely critical for climate action if we are to avoid climate catastrophe. However, up to now we have lacked a standardized set of measures of the level of human-induced warming for tracking our progress over times as short as a year.
So far, the gold standard against which progress can be measured has been the IPCC’s cycle of Assessment Reports (e.g., the latest being AR6, completed this year). These have been published on cycle times of 6 to 7 years.
A team of 50 authors from major climate science institutes and universities around the world under lead author, Piers Maxwell Forster of the Priestly Centre University of Leeds, have set out to publish annually updated reliable global climate indicators in the public domain. This is based on the assessment methods used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report, to update the monitoring datasets and to produce updated estimates for key climate indicators. These include emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, surface temperature changes, the Earth’s energy imbalance, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget and estimates of global temperature extremes. As these measurements are traceable and consistent with IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel.
Although still unreviewed, this work certainly provides the most up to date data on our progress towards reversing global warming while that might still be possible.
The news is bad. Although there are a few improvements in isolation, nothing we have done through the end of 2022 has been enough to perceptibly the rate of global warming.
Piers Maxwell Forster, et al. – 02/05/2023, Earth System Science Data
Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement that will conclude at COP28 in December 2023. Evidence-based decision making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles.
We base this update on the assessment methods used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report, updating the monitoring datasets and to produce updated estimates for key climate indicators including emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, surface temperature changes, the Earth’s energy imbalance, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open data, open science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7883758, Smith et al., 2023). As they are traceable and consistent with IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel.
The indicators show that human induced warming reached 1.14 [0.9 to 1.4] °C over the 2013–2022 period and 1.26 [1.0 to 1.6] °C in 2022. Human induced warming is increasing at an unprecedented rate of over 0.2 °C per decade. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 57 ± 5.6 GtCO2e over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there are signs that emission levels are starting to stabilise, and we can hope that a continued series of these annual updates might track a real-world change of direction for the climate over this critical decade.
The first set of observations shows that most human carbon emissions have not slowed, although, although the slowing economy over COVID have somewhat slowed overall growth (although this appears to have resumed in 2022). The only area where have actually significantly slowed emissions is for regulated fluorinated gases (F-gas).
Figure 1: Annual global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by source, 1970-2021. Refer to Sect. 2.1 for a list of datasets. Starred datasets (*) indicate the sources used to compile global total greenhouse gas emissions in panel a. CO2 equivalent emissions in panels a and f are calculated using GWPs with a 100-year time horizon from the AR6 WGI Chapter 7 (Forster et al., 2021). F-gas emissions in panel a comprise only UNFCCC F-gas emissions (see Sect. 2.1 for a list of species). Not shown in panels d and e are biomass combustion emissions from GFED (Van Der Werf 2017), which are included in the aggregate estimate in panel a.
The next set of figures shows how effective the various gases in greenhouse layer in the atmosphere are at capturing solar radiation (i.e., “effective radiation forcing”). In 2a right facing bars represent a net positive forcing of higher temperatures, while the left facing bars represent the reflection of extra energy away from Earth. 2b shows a fairly abrupt increase in the forcing between 1960 and 1970, presumably due to the increasing annual rates of greenhouse gas emissions. Note: if the Earth is to have any chance to begin cooling the anthropogenic forcing (grey) needs to trend down, not to continue rising higher as it does here!
Figure 2: Effective radiative forcing from 1750-2022. (a) 1750-2022 change in ERF, showing best estimates (bars) and 5-95% uncertainty ranges (lines) from major anthropogenic components to ERF, total anthropogenic ERF, and solar 610 forcing.
Figure 2: Effective radiative forcing from 1750-2022. (b) Time evolution of ERF from 1750 to 2022. Best estimates from major anthropogenic categories are shown along with solar and volcanic forcing (thin coloured lines), total (thin black line) and anthropogenic total (thick black line). 5-95% uncertainty in the anthropogenic forcing is shown in shaded grey. Note solar forcing in 2022 is a single-year estimate.
Because Earth currently suffers an imbalance between the solar energy it receives and what it radiates away to outer space as heat energy, the difference between energy received and energy radiated is stored as heat by raising the temperature of various components of planet’s mass (i.e., as the heat inventory). Figure 3a shows that the vast bulk is being stored at different water levels in the ocean, with virtually all of the remained represented by melted ice and the surface layer of soil. Again, if we are to even begin to reduce the rate of global warming, the graph of energy change must be changed to a down slope rather than the continuously rising one show here.
Figure 3b compares the IPCC’s estimates with the somewhat higher estimates presented in this paper.
Conclusion
There is absolutely no good news in the vast array of evidence assembled into these few graphs (assuming the work stands up to peer review, which it almost certainly will). Nothing humans have done to date has had a visible impact on the ominous trends into the climate crisis of the 6th global mass extinction in a ‘Hothouse Earth’ that will simply be too hot for many keystone species to survive physiologically. Beginning with Steffen et al’s, “Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene” and “Tripping down the road to Earth’s Hothouse Hell and Global Mass Extinction“, a series of articles in Climate Sentinel News explains that falling into the hothouse hell will be as easy as falling off a cliff.
As noted herein above, if we are to get off that road to Hell before it is too steep for that to be possible, we basically have to turn the graphs shown above upside down, so the trends are back towards where they were in the first half of the last century. We won’t be able to do this as long as our governments continue protecting and subsidizing the fossil fuel industries that are still making things worse from one year to the next. Basically our governments will have to work together and mobilize a global war against the climate emergency. Individually, as is the case in global war, we’ll probably have to accept rationing of critical or polluting resources and some curtailment of our usual freedoms to make things worse….
It will be hard, but consider this: It took us more about 100 years from beginning in 1927 with 2 bn people and steampunk technology to accidentally warm the planet to its present state. Starting now, with 2023’s highly advanced and incredibly more powerful technologies and scientific knowledge, we should be able cool the planet back to a sustainable temperature.
The first step has to be fixing our political systems so they work for all humans rather than working to make a few vested special interests become insanely wealthy and powerful individuals at the expense of the planetary biosphere.
Featured Image:
Summary from the Copernicus ESDD article bringing reported values from IPCC AR6 report up to date at the end of 2022. The causal chain from emissions to resulting warming of the climate system. Emissions of GHG have 1190 increased rapidly over recent decades (panel a). These emissions have led to increases in the atmospheric concentrations of several GHGs including the three major well-mixed GHGs (panel b). The global surface temperature (shown as annual anomalies from an 1850–1900 baseline) has increased by around 1.15°C since 1850–1900 (panel c). The human-induced warming estimate is a close match to the observed warming (panel d). Whiskers show 5% to 95% ranges. Figure is modified from AR6 SYR (Figure 2.1, Lee et al., 2023).
Views expressed in this post are those of its author(s), not necessarily all Vote Climate One members.
Closeup of long chain of Salp zooids (tunicate / feeds on phytoplankton). Photo by Larry Madin, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Confetti squid. Photo by Paul Caiger, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
Bobtail squid (order Sepiolida) are a group of cephalopods closely related to cuttlefish. Bobtail squid tend to have a rounder mantle than cuttlefish and have no cuttlebone. Photo by Paul Caiger, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
The twilight zone is home to more fish than the rest of the ocean combined. Most of these fish—and other organisms that live in the zone—are tiny, measuring just a few inches long or less. But some, like gelatinous siphonophores, can form chains that extend as much as 130 feet, making them among the biggest animals on Earth. Even the smallest twilight zone inhabitants can be powerful through sheer number, however. A tiny but fierce-looking fish called a bristlemouth is the most abundant vertebrate on the planet—for every one human, there are more than 100,000 bristlemouths.
…
How does life in the twilight zone affect global climate?
By migrating to and from the surface, eating, being eaten, dying—and even by pooping—organisms in the twilight zone transport huge amounts of carbon from surface waters into the deep ocean. That process, called the biological pump, plays an important role in regulating Earth’s climate.
Abstract: Paleontological reconstructions of plankton community structure during warm periods of the Cenozoic (last 66 million years) reveal that deep-dwelling ‘twilight zone’ (200–1000 m) plankton were less abundant and diverse, and lived much closer to the surface, than in colder, more recent climates. We suggest that this is a consequence of temperature’s role in controlling the rate that sinking organic matter is broken down and metabolized by bacteria, a process that occurs faster at warmer temperatures. In a warmer ocean, a smaller fraction of organic matter reaches the ocean interior, affecting food supply and dissolved oxygen availability at depth. Using an Earth system model that has been evaluated against paleo observations, we illustrate how anthropogenic warming may impact future carbon cycling and twilight zone ecology. Our findings suggest that significant changes are already underway, and without strong emissions mitigation, widespread ecological disruption in the twilight zone is likely by 2100, with effects spanning millennia thereafter. [my emphasis]
Ocean fertilization to stimulate algal growth over the surface of the abyssal ocean offers a means to capture CO₂. A food chain of pelagic consumers ranging from the twilight creatures harvesting the algae and their larger predators up to whales can then capture and package the carbon capturing algae into a range of parcels from fecal pellets to dead whales that will drop to the ocean floor.
The nature of biological systems is that they are self-reproducing and can grow exponentially under suitable conditions. ‘farming’ these consumers to optimize the carbon capture and transport it to the bottom is something that might realistically have the capacity to actually reduce atmospheric CO₂ on a fast enough timescale to slow, stop and reverse global warming.
However, the articles above show that a warming ocean substantially reduces the viability of the twilight organisms that provide the packaging service. Thus, if we don’t implement this biological sink before significantly more warming occurs, this opportunity to reverse the warming process may be lost.
Featured image: Antarctic krill Euphausia superba (copyright Uwe Kils, Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, RUTGERS University). Along with bristlemouth fish, krill are major components in the food chain of the twilight zone’s biological carbon pump potentially sequestering carbon in the abyssal depths of the world’s oceans. The world oceans’ surfaces, away from the shallows, are comparatively sterile because the water lacks micro nutrients (e.g., iron, manganese) required to support phytoplankton. Thus, vast areas of the oceans lack effective biological pumps to sequester carbon. Fertilizing these sterile areas of the oceans with trace nutrients and farming the twilight zone (i.e., seeding with appropriate species to provide the biological pumping mechanism) may establish a sufficiently extensive mechanism to sequester globally significant amounts of carbon in the abyssal depths.
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Views expressed in this post are those of its author(s), not necessarily all Vote Climate One members.
Berkeley Earth shows March 2023 was abruptly warmer than February and tied for the 2nd warmest March globally since records began in 1850.
Berkeley Earth’s global temperature readings are ominous news where the climate crisis is concerned.
Berkeley Earth is an independent climatology research organization established in 2010 to systematically address five major concerns that global warming skeptics had identified, and did so in a systematic and objective manner. The first four were potential biases from data selection, data adjustment, poor station quality, and the urban heat island effect. Their analysis showed that these issues did not unduly bias the record. The fifth concern related to the over-reliance on large and complex global climate models by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the attribution of the recent temperature increase to anthropogenic forces. They obtained a long and accurate record, spanning 250 years and showed that it could be well-fit with a simple model that included a volcanic term and, as an anthropogenic proxy, CO2 concentration.
Berkely Earth has several major objectives for their continuing work:
Further scientific investigations on the nature of climate change.
Continued identification, investigation, and illustration of opportunities for applications of our global temperature dataset and air pollution data, and work with global industries and governments to inform and support immediate and long-term decision-making on global warming.
Continue as the world leader in the collection, analysis, and presentation of world air quality information.
Establish and strengthen partnerships with national and international media, NGOs, industry leaders, government decision-makers to explore and promote ways to communicate and utilize our data.
Increase the collection, analysis, and presentation of ocean data.
The climate science community accepts Berkeley Earth’s independently constructed reports among the standards used for cross-checking the accuracy of other reports (i.e., as independent observations of what should be the same reality).
The global mean temperature in March 2023 was 1.52 ± 0.10 °C (2.74 ± 0.18 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average, which is frequently used as a benchmark for the preindustrial period. The global mean temperature anomaly in March 2023 exhibited a sharp increase in temperature relative to February 2023, rising more than 0.2 °C (0.36 °F). This was driven by sharp warming on land, 0.4 °C (0.72 °F), and moderate warming in the oceans, 0.1 °C (0.18 °F). Such large month-to-month shifts are uncommon, but not unheard of, occurring approximately 5% of the time.
The following is a summary of global temperature conditions in Berkeley Earth’s analysis of March 2023.
Globally, March 2023 was abruptly warmer than February and tied for the 2nd warmest March since records began in 1850.
March global average temperatures exceeded 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 baseline, becoming the 10th time this has occurred for a monthly average.
On land, March 2023 was the 2nd warmest March since 1850.
Warm conditions occurred in much of Asia, parts of Europe and North Africa, the Arctic, southern South America, and several oceanic regions.
Unusually cool conditions were present in parts of the Western United States and Canada, as well as much of the Southern Pacific.
The Pacific exhibits neutral conditions with a transition to El Niño considered likely later this year.
2023 is on pace to be the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th warmest year, but considerable uncertainty remains, including a substantial 38% likelihood that 2023 could become a new record warm year.
The global heat rise in March and April is more than reflected in the average sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly over most of the Earth outside the polar regions not included in the following measurements depicted by the University of Maine’s ClimateReanalyzer.org, whose supercomputers reconstruct and record a wide range of climate observations from many thousands to millions of data points for the planet every day. Even as the SST is falling significantly at the end of April after reaching an all-time record, it is still way higher than any previous record for this time of the year.
Some idea of the quality and magnitude of the input data can be found by following the links below the graphics in this document.
Daily variation in the Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly from 1981 through May 1, 2023. Climate Reanalyzer / Climate Change Institute / University of Maine
Current sea surface temperatures also indicate the likelihood that the next El Niño is brewing that will drive global average (and many local) temperatures to new record highs.
Sea Surface Temperaure Anomalies for 2 April 2023. Climate Reanalyzer / Climate Change Institute / University of Maine. Note the anomalous patch of very hot water west of the equatorial coast of South America and the warm patch extending west of this along the Equator. This is a strong indicator for a developing El Niño condition.
We can conclude from these observations, that there is no evidence that the process of global warming has stopped or even slowed. If we don’t stop it soon, humans – and for that matter – all life on Earth will suffer from the failure. Political as well as personal action is required if we are to give our offspring a viable future.
Featured Image
Berkeley Earth’s plot of Global Warming by Month through the end of February 2023: “The most significant spatial features of year-to-date temperatures are the end of La Niña, warmth across much of the northern mid-latitudes, and several ocean hotspots. Year-to-date, 3.9% of the Earth’s surface has experienced average temperatures that are a local record high. In addition, 0.01% of the surface has been record cold year-to-date.” https://berkeleyearth.org/march-2023-temperature-update/.
Views expressed in this post are those of its author(s), not necessarily all Vote Climate One members.
The climate emergency needs a revolution: from governments supporting dogmas and special interests to supporting citizens.
Vote Climate One is working to inform Australians of the scientific facts relating to the ever growing climate emergency and what can be done politically to ensure that our governments actively join the battle to solve the emergency. We hope this will help drive a political revolution enabling this to happen.
Due to humans’ alteration of Earth’s atmosphere, the physical world we live in is generating a climate emergency
Scientific evidence shows this is the case
This image of a burning home in Lake Conjola in New South Wales, Australia, was taken in the middle of the day on New Year’s Eve. Credit…Matthew Abbott for The New York Times. Our Black Summer Bushfires should be more than enough to convince every Australian that we are facing a very real and very dangerous climate emergency.
Where scientifically validated facts are concerned, two weeks ago on the 20th of March the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) controlled by 195 nations of the world forming the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published their dire forecast for our future climate. This report’s Summary for Policy Makers was signed off by the delegated representatives of every one of the WMO member nations. This summary report crossing many different scientific disciplines concludes some 6 years of some of the most stringently peer-reviewed scientific research ever published. In other words, the forecast is based on a vast array of solid and tested evidence, not just anecdotes and beliefs.
In other words, where the IPCC says our future is dire if we don’t stop global warming, the actual reality is likely to be even worse, i.e., involving social collapse and even possible/likely human extinction within a century or two. Hence, our warning on Vote Climate One’s cover page:
Humans triggered the climate emergency over a little more than 100 years. In this geological instant of time we burned prodigious quantities of safely sequestered fossil carbon accumulated over millions of years to produce and release the greenhouse gas CO₂ and, even more potent greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This was done more-or-less accidentally with the invention of primitive, Victorian era-based steam- technologies. However, even the low tech used and applied by billions of people significantly changed the composition of an entire planet’s worth of atmosphere so it traps more solar energy to significantly warm the whole planet. Today, we are continuing to dump still more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, heating the planet even more.
Given that humans only took a century to accidentally create the climate emergency using steampunk technology, surely, by working together and using our most up to date science and technologies, we should be able to solve the emergency. Unfortunately dogma and selfish greed promoted by special interests controlling the planet’s resources are working against stopping greenhouse gas emitting activities. This, unavoidably, becomes fraught with politics: internationally, nationally, state, and even at local council levels. Political revolutions will be required at all levels to favor climate action.
Before we can work together to solve the climate emergency in the physical world, we must revolutionize our current political world working to protect special interests by keeping us divided
Puppet governments
Where politics is concerned, for several decades at least, Australian Governments (federal, state, and even many local councils) have governed primarily to serve entrenched party-political dogmas and vested special interests. Parliamentary parties have worked to impose their dogmas on the nation’s citizens rather than listening to them. Special interests influencing the governments include multinational companies in the resource and fossil fuel industries, super-wealthy individuals, land-developers and religious groupings. Parties (and party discipline) tends to support the interests who support their campaigns and provide them with favorable media. Our Climate Sentinel News article provides a case study of Liberal government in NSW: Is Premier Perrottet a far-right puppet, or the puppet master?
Unfortunately, the uncoordinated actions of people alone, no matter how well motivated, cannot possibly organize, marshal, and control all the resources and technologies needed for effective action on the climate emergency. This requires the tools of and coordination by government. Effective action to stop global warming requires stopping industrial carbon emissions. This just isn’t going to happen as long as puppet governments guided by fossil fuel industries continue subsidizing their puppet masters and jailing protesters campaigning to stop emissions. Several Climate Sentinel News posts document such cases under the search term “puppet master“.
Revolutionary political change is the solution
Vote Climate One concludes that the critical first steps in mobilizing effective climate action must be to: (1) inform citizens of the genuine reality of the climate crisis (i.e., via Climate Sentinel News); and (2) provide knowledge and tools to influence or replace parliamentary puppets of the special interests with MPs who will place citizens’ interests first (i.e., “Traffic Light Voting” and “Voting Guides“).
In other words, we aim to facilitate fundamental political revolutions in Australian parliaments: From ‘democracies’ guided by the greed of large special interests for profits and power; To a genuine democracies representing their citizens and being concerned with their health and well being.
In Australia’s political environment we think the best governments will be Labor in a minority (with labor more progressive than the usual opposition parties) where Greens and a diversity of greenish community independents hold the balance of power to prevent Labor from catering to vested interests.
This revolution has begun! Current state of the political revolution in Australia
Australian Parliament
In last year’s Federal election, the COALition majority government was decimated: replaced by a Labor government with a razor thin margin and a large cross bench with 14 green-light candidates.
House of Representatives Elections
COALition
Aust. Labor Party
Centre Alliance
Katter’s Australian
Australian Greens
Ind (Teal)
Ind (other)
2022
58
77
1
1
4
9
2
2019
77
68
1
1
1
3
1
-18
+11
(Sharkie)
(Katter)
+3
+6
(Gee + Dai Le)
(Majority ≥ 75): Labor 77 + Aston = 78; Red lights 61 – Aston = 60; Green lights = 15
Green lights include (Greens: 1 carryover and 3 new ones – replacing Libs in metro Brisbane) plus a swag of greenish community independents from 4 other states; Labor controls the lower house in majority but with a narrow margin. Several seats could easily go to independents in by elections.
In the 1 April (April Fool’s day!) by-election in Aston (Ferntree Gully – Rowville in eastern Melbourne), in a 6.44% swing, Labor gained another ex-safe Liberal seat. This is the first time since 1920(!) that any party in power has won a seat in a Federal by-election anywhere in Australia. Only 3 out of 32 booths in the once safely Liberal Aston had a majority of Liberal votes.
Liberals are left holding only 2 of 23 seats in Inner Metro Melbourne (Deakin and Menzies), 3 of 7 Outer Metro (Casey, LaTrobe and Flinders), and 0 of 3 Regional Metro areas (Bendigo, Ballarat, and Geelong).
Senate Elections
COALition
Aust. Labor Party
Greens
Pauline Hanson’s
Jacqui Lambie
United Australia
David Pocock
Lidia Thorpe
2022 Election
15
15
6
1
1
1
1
Total Senate 2022
31
26
11
2
2
1
1
1
Majority > 38: Labor 26; Red lights 36; Green lights 13 — (Labor + green lights) = 39
Where Labor has only 26 seats compared to 36 seats for the red lights, the green lights clearly hold the balance of power in the Senate. David Pocock (community independent) and Lidia Thorpe (elected as a Green) must be included along with the Greens party to give Labor a majority. David Pocock’s vote is critical in decisions where the red lights are unanimously against.
In our analysis of the results, Vote Climate One’s Traffic Light Election Guide was accessed hundreds of thousands of times during the pre poll and election day voting period – which might have helped some candidates over the line to either second place (allowing preferences to be distributed to them) to pass the 50% two party preferred winning position. In the ACT Vote Climate One funded distribution of paper versions of the Guide in a few of the suburbs — where Pocock did statistically better than in suburbs we didn’t cover. This may have been a significant component in the winning margin.
Since the Federal Election we have had state elections in Victoria and NSW.
Victorian State Parliament
The Victorian Parliament has more resistant to revolutionary change because of the many barriers to Greens, minor parties and independents crafted into the electoral laws designed to favor the major parties. Victoria allows ‘group voting tickets’ for election to the Legislative Council and secretive backroom ‘preference trading’ among the mobs. Combined with this, Victoria’s heavyweight restrictions on campaign contributions and funding gravely hamper independents and minor parties’ abilities to campaign compared to major parties’ major funding.
Legislative Assembly
The Assembly (lower house) ended up with Labor holding 56 seats, Liberals with 19, Nationals 9 (red lights = 38), and Greens 4; where a majority is < 45. None of the 120 independents or candidates from 16 minor parties won a single seat. Labor’s 11 seat majority in the lower house combined with party discipline does little to hinder autocratic government from the Labor side.
On the other hand voting for the Legislative Council turned out well for green-light candidates. MLCs serve for 4 year terms, with all seats contested in each state election.
Legislative Council
For Legislative Council Elections in Victoria, the state is divided into 8 geographically defined electoral regions, with 5 members representing each region, for a total of 40 members. Elections are determined by ‘optional preferential voting‘. Voters have a ‘single transferable vote‘, which may be used either
‘above the line’, to vote one party’s group voting ticket listing all candidates for the region in the party’s preferred order, or
‘below the line’, where you must number at least 5 candidates in your preferred order, and may number all candidates for the region in your preferred order. If you number less than 5 or give more than one candidate the same number this invalidates your ballot.
The use of group voting tickets enables upper house elections allows voters’ intentions to be rorted in many ways as described by Glen Druery, the ‘Preference Whisperer’. However, despite all of this, after the 2022 election, green-light MLC’s on the cross-bench with 7 votes hold the balance of power.
Victorian Legislative Council Elections
Labor
COALition
Greens
Animal Justice
Derryn Hinch’s
Fiona Patten’s
Labor DLP
Legalize Cannabis
Liberal Democrats
Pauline Hanson’s
Shooters, Fishers, F…
Sustainable Aust.
Transport Matters
2022
15
14
4
1
0
0
1
2
1
1
1
0
0
2018
18
13
1
1
3
1
0
0
2
0
1
1
1
change
-3
+1
+3
-3
-1
+1
+2
-1
+1
-1
-1
Labor 15, Greens 4, Cannabis 2, Animal Justice 1 (22); vs red-lights: Libs 8, Nat 6, Lab DLP 1, Lib Dem 1, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 1, Shooters & Fishers 1 (18). With 21 needed for a majority in the upper house, Greens are clearly in the balance of power.
Way ahead for Victorian voters
Given that Labor is already relatively progressive on climate action, a green light majority on the cross bench may be in a position to block favorable treatment of Labor’s fossil fuel special interests, and to encourage strong action to shut down fossil fuel emissions. Victorians need to keep a close watch on their representatives and make sure via letter bombing, phone calls, and personal visits to electorate offices that they stay on the job to stop global warming!
New South Wales State Parliament
The NSW State election was held a week ago (1 April), but like Victoria the NSW’s election laws work against minor parties and independents. However, Vote Climate One may have had a bit more influence here. Liberal/Nationals were soundly defeated and Labor is in, but with a definite minority government. Labor is two short of a majority pending possible recounts. (The Liberals held the seat of Ryde by only 50 votes when the last of the postal votes were counted on 8 May).
NSW State Legislative Assembly Election
On the Labor/green-light side, Labor 45; Greens 3 (Ballina – thanks to the repeated extreme flooding events, plus Sydney electorates of Balmain & Newtown); and 3 green-light independents – one of them backed by Climate200, for a total of 51; where 47 votes are required to pass legislation.
There are also 2 orange-light incumbent independents with significant green credentials.
Note, for the count here I have reclassified Michael Regan (Wakehurst), listed orange light before the election. Due to time constraints our analysis missed his strong record of climate actions as Mayor of Northern Beaches Council and the fact that he was supported by Federal teal MPs, Zali Steggall (Warringah) and Sophie Scamps (Mackellar).
On the Lib/Nat red-light side there are 25 Libs; 11 Nationals and 4 independents (1 ex Lib and 3 ex shooters/fishers/farmers) for a total of 40.
This leaves NSW with a Labor minority government with Greens + green-light independents with a strong hold in the balance of power.
NSW State Legislative Council Election
The NSW Legislative Council has 42 members, elected by proportional representation in which the whole state is a single electorate. Members serve eight-year terms, which are staggered, with half the Council (21) being elected every four years. 22 votes are required for a majority.
All registered parties are listed ‘above the line’ on the ballot paper. All candidates running in the election for a party (as listed above the line) are listed for that party in preference order below the line. Unaffiliated independent candidates are only listed below the line.
A single ‘1’ above the line is formal and counts for the chosen party but has no preferences for other parties. If they wish, a voter may show a second, third and so on preference for other parties above the line. These preferences are implied to be preferences for candidate of each group as printed on the ballot paper.
If a voter wants to re-order a party’s candidates, pick candidates from different parties, or vote for candidates in any group without a voting square above the line, they must vote ‘below the line’ by numbering boxes for candidates. Electors must complete 15 preferences below the line for a formal vote. DO NOT number a sequences that crosses the ballot paper line.
NSW Legislative Council Election
Coalition
Labor
Greens
Pauline Hanson’s
Shooters, Fishers, +
Animal Justice
Cannabis
Lib Democrats
2023 election
7
8
2
1
1
0
1
1
Total Council 2023
15
15
4
3
2
1
1
1
In the Legislative Council 22 votes form a majority, and there are now 15 Labor, 6 green lights (4 Greens, 1 AJP, 1 Cannabis), totaling 21 votes, versus 21 red light votes (Coalition 15, Pauline Hansons’s 3, SFF 2, Lib Dems 1).
Note: According to the ABC on 9/04/2023, as this is being written:
There are still some uncertainties in the count. Four seats are still not finalized, but are likely to be filled by a seventh Liberal member and one each representing Legalise Cannabis, the Liberal Democrats and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers. These are included in the above table.
“The Legislative Council consists of 42 members. Traditionally one of the government’s members is elected President. The President only has a casting vote meaning votes are determined by the 41 members on the floor with a government needing 21 members to pass legislation. After appointing the President, Labor will have only 14 members, which means the new government will need votes from seven of the 12 crossbench members to pass legislation.”
Based on trends in the present count, only 6 on the cross bench will be green lights. In other words, Vested interests working through normally cooperative red lights in the upper house, may still have some ability to block important legislation on climate action.
Way ahead for NSW voters
Noting that the Liberal Democrats and Shooters, Fishers are farther to the right and dogmatic on energy policy and climate action than the Liberal Party, we must hope that the Liberals in the upper house will follow the lead of green lights in the lower house on climate legislation.
Voters concerned to see serious action on climate need to stay alert to what their representatives in both houses are saying and doing. Make sure they know via letter bombing, phone calls, and personal visits to electorate offices that they must stay on the job to stop global warming!
What will Vote Climate One do to help?
Insofar as our limited resources allow, we will endeavor to keep Australian voters up to date with the latest news on the still growing climate emergency (i.e., why we need action) and what our governments are doing to solve it. Towards this end, we will be establishing an email service you can subscribe to, and publish contact details for all federal and state parliamentarians so you can send them hearts and flowers or brick bats depending on how well they are addressing needs for climate action.
It seems to have taken the clear thinking of Greta Thunberg, then a 16 year-old school girl, who concluded school was pointless as long as humans continued their blind ‘business as usual’ rush towards extinction.
Listen to Greta’s speech live at the World Economic forum in Davos 2019. Except for her reliance on the IPCC’s overoptimistic emissions budget, everything she says is spot on what even she, as a child, can understand the alternatives and what has to happen.
In other words, wake up! smell the smoke! see the grimly frightful reality, and fight the fire that is burning up our only planet so we can give our offspring a hopeful future. This is truly the only issue that matters. Even the IPCC’s hyperconservative Sixth Assessment Report that makes it clear we are headed for an existential climate catastrophe if we don’t stop the warming process.
In Greta’s words, “even a small child can understand [this]”.
People hope for their children’s futures. She doesn’t want your hopium. She wants you to rationally panic enough to wake up, pay attention to reality, and fight the fire…. so all of our offspring can have some hope for their future.
In our present situation where most governments still support and even fund fossil fuel production and use, the most effective actions we can take as individuals is to revolutionize our governments to prioritize action on climate change above all other things. Nothing else matters if we have no future….
If we can get climate savvy governments in power soon enough, we may be able to mobilize enough action to survive our accidental disruption of Earth’s Climate System so our kids and grandkids inherit a world they can live in…
This is who we are working for! Think of your families’ futures.
Views expressed in this post are those of its author(s), not necessarily all Vote Climate One members.
Unwelcome reality is that we face an extremely dangerous climate emergency. Politicians must shift from business as usual to emergency mode.
Anyone who pays attention to weather and climate will know that lethally dangerous extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, wildfires have been growing increasingly more extreme, widespread, and frequent. These will keep getting more and more lethal as long as our planet keeps getting warmer. This is an emergency!
The scientific evidence as summarized in the 8000 page report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (a United Nations organization comprised of the representatives of the 180 nations involved in the World Meteorological Organization) is so overwhelmingly comprehensive and complete that is no longer contestable. The Australian Climate Council explains it. Our own Climate Sentinel News blog surveys the vast array of evidence and considers its implications and government’s reactions in more depth. Three major articles focus on NSW (click the image to open the article):
Before you fill in your ballot papers, please think about which candidates/parties on the ballots have the willingness, ability, or capacity to deal with the genuine emergencies we face. Will wishful thinking, party dogma or denial or reality be enough? I.e., usiness as usual – the normal mode for the major political parties, and some of the minor parties or independents. If you can vote in your electorate for someone who seems ready, willing and able to deal with climate emergency issues, please do so.
Vote Climate One can make it quick and easy for you to choose.
Those we found to be generally tied to vested interests and/or unrealistic party or personal dogmas; or deniers of the climate crisis are flagged with red lights without any detailed justification. We use the orange light for those individuals and parties we thought might help or at least not impede required climate action, but could not fine enough evidence they would actually drive climate action.
Green lights were granted only where we found enough good evidence that a candidate or party could be trusted to put action on the climate emergency high on their priorities in Parliament. In these cases we also provide voters with links to some of the information justifying our ranking.
All this is distilled in our easy and quick to use voting guide for each electorate showing our ranking of all the candidates you can vote for. Grandad Rob, with a little help from a couple of youngsters in his tribe, demonstrates:
With a lot of work, our species and families may just might be able to survive the 21st Century.
Featured image:
From Lismore City News: 16/03/2022 – Flooding on February 28 was the worst Lismore had ever experienced, reachning 14.4m and leaving devastation in its wake.
For that matter following the horrific bushfires of the Black Summer of 2020-2021 and extensive droughts catastrophic floods began soon after with a rare sequence of La Niñas when vitually all areas of NSW experienced major flooding at least once, if not several time since.
Views expressed in this post are those of its author(s), not necessarily all Vote Climate One members.
IPCC warns we have only a few years left when climate action can reverse human caused global warming to avoid a crescendo of climate catastrophes
Unfortunately, we are living in a world where the greedy self-interests of billionaires and multi-national corporations tend to control media and politics. These special interests are threatened by things that must be done to slow and stop global warming. They use their power over the media and politicians to deny the need for and to prevent critically important climate action. However, the real-world understanding reported in the concluding summary of the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report on Climate Change (published this week) documents and explains the very real dangers and even mass deaths society faces if global warming is not stopped by 2030. We genuinely face a climate emergency that threatens human survival. To have any hope of organizing and implementing the kinds of statewide and national actions needed to stop the warming process citizens have to replace the parliamentary puppets of special interests with MPs who will genuinely work for the citizens who elected them. In New South Wales, how you vote this week is a life-and-death matter!
I have explained that this approval process is highly conservative and cannot avoid downplaying the extent and dangers of climate change. In reality, the actual dangers to humanity are likely to be a lot worse than described by the IPCC. New South Wales residents who are currently voting on their state government (polls close on 25 March) should note that all the modeling and predictions discussed in the Report are based on weather and climate data collected only up to 2020. The models and predictions do not include evidence on or predict how extreme climate events have actually been: e.g.,Black Summer bushfires, more than two years of unprecedented and widespread flooding, extreme heatwaves and drought, etc. If you are living on the land or close to Nature, you will know that the reality you are living with is already significantly worse than anticipated by the IPCC.
At nearly 8,000 pages, the full report is virtually unreadable. Every statement is documented, justified, and qualified. Fortunately, the World Resources Institute has done an admirable job of highlighting critical content in a readable way:
Cover Image by: Anirut Thailand/Shutterstock (from the article)
It also makes for grim reading. Across nearly 8,000 pages, the AR6 details the devastating consequences of rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions around the world — the destruction of homes, the loss of livelihoods and the fragmentation of communities, for example — as well as the increasingly dangerous and irreversible risks should we fail to change course.
But the IPCC also offers hope, highlighting pathways to avoid these intensifying risks. It identifies readily available, and in some cases, highly cost-effective actions that can be undertaken now to reduce GHG emissions, scale up carbon removal and build resilience. While the window to address the climate crisis is rapidly closing, the IPCC affirms that we can still secure a safe, livable future.
…
Looking Ahead
The IPCC’s AR6 makes clear that risks of inaction on climate are immense and the way ahead requires change at a scale not seen before. However, this report also serves as a reminder that we have never had more information about the gravity of the climate emergency and its cascading impacts — or about what needs to be done to reduce intensifying risks.
Limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) is still possible, but only if we act immediately. As the IPCC makes clear, the world needs to peak GHG emissions before 2025 at the very latest, nearly halve GHG emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero CO2 emissions around mid-century, while also ensuring a just and equitable transition. We’ll also need an all-hands-on-deck approach to guarantee that communities experiencing increasingly harmful impacts of the climate crisis have the resources they need to adapt to this new world. Governments, the private sector, civil society and individuals must all step up to keep the future we desire in sight. A narrow window of opportunity is still open, but there’s not one second to waste. [my emphasis]
As reported extensively in all Australian media today (21 May) the agreed IPCC summary says that near-term (i.e., ASAP!) climate action is urgent because the window is closing for us to secure a livable and sustainable future, and that: “The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years”. These and many other critically important points are clearly summarized in the Headline Statements, which are the overarching conclusions of the approved Summary for Policymakers. Taken together these provide a concise narrative as to why effective action on the climate emergency is so urgent.
If you care for your future and the future of your family and society, you need to take the IPCC’s cautions and warnings seriously. And consider what this means in a world where your political representatives are likely to be more concerned to satisfy the wants of their big donors and special interests rather than you or other citizens of their electorates. These big donors are developers, fossil fuel industries, miners, etc., who are more concerned about immediate profit rather than future survival.
Think: if you are a “rusted-on” voter who can be counted on to vote for the incumbent or party you have always voted for, especially in a ‘safe’ seat, your ‘representative’ has no reason to consider your future in any way, and can work full time for the special interests.
However, in Australia, we still live in a democracy where your considered vote can actually work to throw the bastards out, by electing someone you can reasonably trust to work for the community of those who vote rather than those who pay…. Given the nature and reality of the climate emergency, you should consider Vote Climate One’s motto:
We need to treat the climate emergency as a global war we are on track to lose unless we can focus our efforts on the only task that matters — reversing global warming. If we fail here no other tasks matter — our species will soon end up extinct no matter how we arrange the deck chairs on the burning ship.
If you need more evidence that we need to change our governments, there is plenty on our Climate Sentinel News blog covering both science and politics.
How to vote
We don’t tell you how to vote. We work to help you achieve the results you want when you vote.
In Australia, Vote Climate One works to assess and rank how we think every party and independent candidate on the ballot in Federal and all State elections will respond to the climate crisis. Thanks to modern computer technology this is actually do-able. How we rank candidates is explained in our Climate Lens Traffic Light Assessment process. Sometimes, we’ll even get on the phone to find out more. The undeniable task of the climate lens is to prioritise the protection of everything we hold dear. The hubris of our species needs a dose of the reduction perspective tranquilizer encapsulated in this painting by Peter Trusler.
Our conclusions are presented via downloadable and printer-friendly voting guides for each and every electorate in NSW. You can find the guide for your electorate here (in this case, Lismore). The electorate screen tells you how we can help. Parties and candidates we think will work for climate action are designated with green lights. Those who we think won’t or who haven’t given us much to go on, are designated with red lights, Those we think are better than the worst, but not fully trustworthy are designated orange.
If you are concerned to see action on climate change, number all the green-light independents and parties first. Thus, even if your number [1] selection doesn’t win, you still maximize the chances that someone else with good climate credentials will be elected. If you want detail to help you decide how to rank green-light candidates, the Research Tools provide links to candidate websites and other information about them.
As Rob and his grandchildren explain in the video, the printable voting guides make it easy for you to transfer your preferences to the ballot paper in the voting booth:
Remember, we are voting in hopes of leaving a happy future for our families and society.
About the featured image: Figure SPM.6 from Summary for Policymakers, AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023
There is a rapidly narrowing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all. There are a multitude of political choices that need to be made during this window. If we make good ones we can go on living in a world with a sustainable future. Bad choices will rapidly constrain our future to pathways that are likely to lead to societal collapse and eventual human extinction in a still rapidly warming world.
Figure caption: The illustrative development pathways (red to green) and associated outcomes (right panel) show that there is a rapidly narrowing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all. Climate resilient development is the process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation measures to support sustainable development. Diverging pathways illustrate that interacting choices and actions made by diverse government, private sector and civil society actors can advance climate resilient development, shift pathways towards sustainability, and enable lower emissions and adaptation. Diverse knowledge and values include cultural values, Indigenous Knowledge, local knowledge, and scientific knowledge. Climatic and non-climatic events, such as droughts, floods or pandemics, pose more severe shocks to pathways with lower climate resilient development (red to yellow) than to pathways with higher climate resilient development (green). There are limits to adaptation and adaptive capacity for some human and natural systems at global warming of 1.5°C, and with every increment of warming, losses and damages will increase. The development pathways taken by countries at all stages of economic development impact GHG emissions and mitigation challenges and opportunities, which vary across countries and regions. Pathways and opportunities for action are shaped by previous actions (or inactions and opportunities missed; dashed pathway) and enabling and constraining conditions (left panel), and take place in the context of climate risks, adaptation limits and development gaps. The longer emissions reductions are delayed, the fewer effective adaptation options.
Views expressed in this post are those of its author(s), not necessarily all Vote Climate One members.
Reason, truth, and proportionality have triumphed over the Perrottet government’s fascist desires to stop climate protests and the police’s compliant fake evidence.
As I discuss further below, the judge’s finding in the Violet CoCo case raises the hope that people are beginning to realize how undemocratically oppressive New South Wales governments have become — because voters have allowed them to remain in office.
My featured article from the Saturday Paper reports the results of serial protester Violet CoCo’s District Court appeal against her brutally totalitarian jail sentence (15 months, 8 months minimum) under the new anti-protest law for protesting government inaction on climate change. Her crime was blocking a one-lane on-ramp to the Sydney Harbour Bridge for less than a half hour to raise public awareness of the climate crisis that threatens all of humanity with mass extinction from global warming due to fossil fuel emissions.
In 2022, the law was rammed through Parliament in less than a week with with Labor’s support, despite calls from a coalition of almost 40 civil society organizations to scrap it. Premier Perrottet and Labor’s leader, Chris Minns, (both members of their parties’ religious right wing factions) both expressed to the press how pleased they were with the draconian nature of the sentence.
Are these the kind of leaders you want to follow in NSW?
Climate activist Violet CoCo. Credit: Isabella Moore / from the article
by Royce Kurmelovs, 18/02/2023 in The Saturday Paper
In an exclusive interview, climate activist Violet CoCo, who won her appeal against a jail sentence this week, details what she has learnt about the ‘theatre’ of politics:
…District Court judge Mark Williams read his ruling this week on whether or not Violet CoCo would serve a 15-month prison sentence for blocking the Sydney Harbour Bridge during a protest…
Four months earlier, Magistrate Allison Hawkins described CoCo as “childish” and “emotional”. In sentencing her, she relied particularly on submissions by police that alleged CoCo’s protest had blocked an ambulance.
“You have halted an ambulance under light and siren,” Hawkins said. “What about the person in there? What about that person and their family? What do they think of you and your cause?”
Only, the ambulance never existed. New South Wales Police Force had been so eager to make their case, they had embellished their account with what Williams described as a “false fact”. Reviewing the evidence, he said: “How did that find its way in?” [my emphasis]
Footage recorded by Channel Seven of the protest, played for the court by Crown prosecutor Isabella Maxwell-Williams, was set aside. An assertion that CoCo had been motivated more by scorn at the treatment of her partner in a separate protest rather than climate change was also rejected. So, too, was any suggestion the protest was “not peaceful” or that CoCo should be punished harshly based on her “criminal history”.
Williams upheld CoCo’s appeal. Convictions were recorded for blocking the bridge, resisting arrest and using a flare, but no jail time was imposed. CoCo was given a 12-month conditional release order.
Read the complete article….
The red-back spiderweb controlling the NSW Liberal Party
A couple of weeks ago my article, “Is Premier Perrettet a far-right puppet, or the puppet master?“, detailed evidence on the public record showing how Dominic Perrottet’s current “Liberal” government represents the culmination of an infiltration of the NSW Liberal Party started more than 40 years ago by a Slovenian Nazi fascist propagandist by the name of Lyenko Urbanchich (wanted after WWII by Yugoslavia as a war criminal deserving the death sentence).
Lyenko successfully planted, co-opted and mentored helpers in the Ethnic Branch and Young Liberals, including David Clarke (MLC 2003-2019). Together Lyenko and Clarke also established themselves in the State Executive of the Party.
Clarke added hard-right Opus Dei Catholicism (Clarke became a “Co-operator”) to Urbanchich’s fascism. In turn they recruited several of the Perrottet brothers who had been immersed from birth in this sect. Their parents John and Ann were/are both self-acknowledged “supernumerary” members of Opus Dei). Some of the brothers, including Dom were schooled at Redfield College (overseen by Opus Dei pastors); and even through their Law/Commerce degrees at Sydney University the brothers lived in UNSW’s Warrane College, also established by Opus Dei. Dominic is now state Premier and brothers Charles and Jean Claude (at least) came through the Young Liberals are still involved in the nefarious branch stacking and other highly dubious politicking by hard-right Liberals.
Damien Tudehope was first elected to Parliament in 2015 after playing musical chairs in the seats of Baulkham Hills, Ryde, and Epping, sometimes as an apparent placeholder for Perrottet. One of his tasks on being elected for the first time was to Chair the Parliamentary Committee on the Independent Commission Against Corruption.
In 2018 Tudehope surrendered his lower house seat of Epping to Perrottet (because Perrottet wanted to shift there because it was “closer to home”), and was given a safe upper house position in return. In this repetition of musical chairs, David Clarke retired from Parliament to free the winnable space on the upper house ticket for Tudehope).
Alex Hawke is another David Clarke protege (MP from Mitchell, NSW, in the Australian Parliament 2007-present) from a strong Anglican background. Hawke’s presidency of the Young Liberals was one of the things being celebrated at Dominic Perrottet’s infamous 21st birthday party where Perrottet costumed himself as a uniformed Nazi. Hawke defected to Morrison’s Hillsong crowd around 2009 and is now considered to be a traitor by the Opus Dei religiofascists. The resulting Hillsong vs Opus Dei holy war for control of the NSW Liberal Party and government continues until today.
Do you want to be governed by these kinds of people and their ideals?
These masters of the spiderweb are only a dark corner of NSW’s overall political corruption
Today’s Saturday Paper’ also features “A brief history of Liberal Party scandals“. This outlines the incredibly long list of voluntary and forced resignations of Liberal premiers(!) and other politicians driven by ICAC investigations. “By sheer number of resignations, the NSW Coalition government goes to next weekend’s election as one of the most scandal prone in history.”
However, even this isn’t the whole story of Coalition government. The corrupt Liberal/Coalition government followed a scandalous Labor government: and then, there is the extensive “‘Fraud, money laundering’: Inside the Hillsong papers“, where a cache of leaked financial documents appears to document staggering misconduct and outrageous spending by leaders of the ‘church’ backing Scott Morrison’s motley crew.
What is the fundamental problem here, and what do we do about it?
The big issue here is that political parties who impose party discipline on elected members almost unavoidably end up reflecting party dogma and beliefs rather than working towards considered solutions to real-world problems. Where one party has a majority to govern in its own right, this makes it easy for leaders controlling the dogma and belief to become quite authoritarian and autocratic.
In states where unelected party apparatchiks and organizers (‘storm troopers’) beholden to a charismatic leader can gain control over nominations to safe seats (e.g., like in NSW), such thugs can control who can be elected, and continue controlling them after they are elected. Depending on the ‘Leader’s’ motivations and sanity, this control can easily lead to authoritarianism and outright despotism. Given that most charismatic leaders are psychopathic narcissists lusting for power, dictatorship is the common outcome. Basically this is how Adolf Hitler took over Germany, Vladimir Lenin took over the Russian Revolution, Vladimir Putin took over Russia (again) after Perestroika and Glasnost, Xi Jinping is taking over of China from what was a slightly democratic Communist Party; and how Donald Trump has been trying so hard to take over America by outright insurrection and rebellion.
In Australia our democracy is still strong enough to block and remove potentially fascist leaders and their political followers from our governments and political parties. We do this by ensuring that no one party has enough parliamentarians to govern in its own right. Both Liberal and Labor need to be downsized to the point that the balance of power is held by community independents genuinely working to represent the communities that have elected them rather than by sheepish puppets of a major party controlled by a charismatic leader supported by a cadre of thugs.
Where party MPs in ‘Safe seats’ can count on being reelected by ‘rusted on’ members of the Party they have no motivation to do anything for their electorates. Their positions are not risked if they work to force party dogma down everyone’s throats. Only where the seat is genuinely marginal do incumbents pay much attention to what their electorates actually want.
Only if you vote for someone else to actually win the seat (e.g., a community independent) can you count on replacing the party puppet with someone committed to listen to your needs and wants.
In the following election, if you still want to vote for your old party, you are far more likely to be presented with someone who knows that they will have to work for you – rather than the party leader – if they want to be elected, and then stay in office.
How can Vote Climate One help you do this?
Vote Climate One is driven by the ever-increasing flood of solid scientific evidence that humans are totally altering our planet’s atmosphere and ecosystems in ways that is triggering a global emergency that will lead to planet-wide economic and ecological collapses and our possible/probable extinction over the next century or so. Some of the rapidly growing evidence for this is documented in our Climate Sentinel News. Failed states, dying coral reefs, and towns that remain unrepaired following climate disasters show these collapses are already beginning….
“We need to treat the climate emergency as a global war we are on track to lose unless we can focus our efforts on the only task that matters — reversing global warming. If we fail here no other tasks matter — our species will soon end up extinct no matter how we arrange the deck chairs on the burning ship.”
For this reason Vote Climate One is working to encourage and help voters replace dud and corrupt parliamentarians (who ignore our daily realities to serve their own greed and the desires of their leaders and special interest puppet masters) by electing others who place the evidence-based needs of their local communities first. These needs may range from working to bring climate change under control, to the often related issues of emergency management, water, transport infrastructure, telecommunications, better health services, or even just integrity in government.
Our Traffic Light Voting System seeks to assess every candidate in every electorate of your state as to how they are likely to respond effectively to the climate emergency — or your local needs…. We have only given our green-light ranking to candidates where we have found good evidence that they can be trusted to work for your community rather than their own or others’ greed and special interests. We provide a lot of detail on many of these candidates so you can make up your own mind how you want to preference them.
Our Convenor, Rob Bakes, explains in his home-made video how easy it will be to use our election guide when it comes time to fill in your ballot papers.
Daggy Grand-Dad explains how easy our voting guide is to use to help give our children and grand children some hope for the future.
Featured Image
“The protest in April 2022 saw an entire citybound lane [actually a one-lane on-ramp] shut down on the Sydney Harbour Bridge during the peak rush hour. (9News)” Wow! The evidence from this photo actually shows that traffic on 7 lanes of the Bridge is flowing normally. Perrottet’s implication in justifying the outrageous sentence, that the whole City was in gridlock, was a bare-faced lie – fake news supporting the application of autocratic power.
Views expressed in this post are those of its author(s), not necessarily all Vote Climate One members.
4 Corners’ “War Within” explores the holywar between Federal Senator Alex Hawke’s Pentecostals and Clarke/Perrettet religio-fascist Catholics
This article presented here follows on from, Is Premier Perrettet a far-right puppet, or the puppet master?, on the still active spiderweb of branch stacking, influence and probable thuggery by right-wing factions of the NSW Liberal Party. In writing this article I missed including ABC Four Corners’ report of “The War Within” broadcast on 04/07/2022.
The Slovenian Nazi sympathizer, Lyenko Urbanchich started building the web within the NSW Liberal Party more than 40 years ago. From around 2000, Lyenko’s protege` state MLC David Clarke nurtured Federal Senator Alex Hawke, several of the Perrottet brothers, and Damian Tudehope amongst others before retiring in 2019. Dominic Perrottet appears to be the heir apparent webmaster….
SEAN NICHOLLS, REPORTER: Tonight on Four Corners, we expose the factional infighting being blamed for fomenting the Coalition’s devastating election loss … with Liberal party insiders speaking out [not] for the first time. We investigate extraordinary allegations about backroom party operatives and how they tried to wield their power. And reveal how, on the brink of a federal election, the internal warfare was deliberately escalated, driven by deep-set hatred and a hunger for revenge. TITLE: THE WAR WITHIN
What does this have to do with the climate emergency?
ABC did establish that Charles Perrottet (one of Dominic’s several brothers) did meet with the dodgy developer Jean Nassif who planed to build several new tower apartment buildings in the Hills Council district. They could not confirm that the dossier correctly presented what was discussed at that meeting.
From the plethora of evidence accumulated over more than 40 years, faction fighting by – and even among — the ‘holy warriors’ on the dogmatic right of the NSW Liberal Party comes closer to what the ABC styled as mafia turf wars than any reasonable political process working to implement the democratically decided will of people. The winners’ goals seem to enhance their power in government to impose their ‘holy’ dogmas more widely on the populace, and to increase their funding from special interests who will support their campaigns in return for being allowed to do what they want to do with minimal government interference. The battle ground has largely been to control enough of admin and leadership roles in the Party’s political apparatus to be able to the candidates allowed to run under the party banner in each electorate – especially in those seats that are ‘safe’. In such safe seats, voters effectively have no say over the appointed candidate if they are ‘rusted on’ voters for the party.
History shows that Adolf Hitler and his Nazi’s used these kinds of tactics (combined with extreme thuggery) to take control of the German state prior to WWII to impose his ‘final solution‘ on the Jews and ‘Lebensraum‘. Similarly Vladimir Lenin and the Bolsheviks followed a similar path to replace/exterminate the Russian monarchy and impose ‘dictatorship of the proletariat‘ on the people.
Also, and actually a lot more importantly where our future is concerned, physical reality (aside from power) rarely plays much of a role in dogmatic holy wars. From what I can see, none of the hard-right factions are concerned about our deteriorating climate. They certainly aren’t much concerned about mitigation or remediation of the damages already taking place. This makes them ready cooperators with special interests who will covertly and overtly fund their electoral campaigns, e.g.,
05/12/2022 – Financial Review: It’s not just Albanese who’s stuck in an energy price mess. “…Perrottet waited until Kean was out of the country at COP 27, pushing NSW’s credentials in the energy transition, to call in departmental chiefs and insist that the approvals for Narrabri be speeded up rather than continue at a snail’s pace. Even more pointedly, Perrottet also appointed Paul Broad as his special adviser on energy – without Kean’s approval or knowledge – leaving the minister feeling blindsided. The gas industry takes this as evidence that Perrottet is equally determined to have an alternative voice on energy – and one with strongly different views to those regularly espoused by Kean.”
30/01/2023 – Lock the Gate: Perrottet Government mulls approval for coal project that would produce 8 times NSW yearly greenhouse emissions. “… [I]f the Perrottet Government is serious about reducing emissions, projects like Glencore and Yancoal’s HVO coal project must not stand a chance of being approved,” he said. “Unfortunately, the NSW Government has a track record of backing new and expanded coal mining, and has failed to adopt policies to prevent coal mines from blowing NSW’s 2030 and 2050 emission targets. “This year, the NSW Government looks set to consider the most new and expanded coal mining capacity in the state since the Paris Agreement. This is an absurd position for a government that claims to have good climate credentials. “Considering such a carbon polluting bomb makes a mockery of any commitments our governments have to reduce emissions and puts Australian communities at risk from severe weather. “Offsets are essentially a giant con, but the idea that 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon emissions could be offset is beyond laughable.”
It’s time to cleanse NSW and Australia of this filthy and dangerous web!
How Can the election help?
VoteClimateOne recommends that if you vote in a ‘safe’ electorate and are concerned about the NSW Government’s intent to deal with the reality of the climate emergency or the Government’s lack of political integrity, think seriously about not voting for your Liberal candidate. This may help remove a puppet from Parliament, or at least turn your previously safe electorate into one where there is a chance to democratically preselect a candidate who will actually be concerned about your interests.
We won’t tell you how to vote, but we do suggest that you check our VOTING GUIDES – NSW for your electorate before you vote for our rankings to see how we rank all candidates in relation to their likely actions on the climate and ecological emergency. We will also flag candidates that we think are puppets or players in the Urbanchich/Clarke/Perrottet or Hawke spiderwebs. Note: our Guides won’t be finalized until we see the formal ballots for each electorate. Hopefully, we will be able to publish our rankings before the polls open. The guides are designed to help you make your selections at home, so all you have to do is transfer them to the formal ballot paper when you reach the polling place.
Featured image:
Concetta Fieravanti-Wells giving her valedictory speech on the end of her 17 years loyal service as Senator for NSW where she blew the whistle on corrupt practices in the NSW Liberal Party. From the Guardian
Views expressed in this post are those of its author(s), not necessarily all Vote Climate One members.
A compendium of graphs plots key indicators of our changing climate. Unless trends are reversed today’s lethal extremes will be ‘lethal ‘new normals’.
Climate scientist Zach Labe shows us in a collection of simple graphs from his WordPress page how many of Planet Earth’s vital signs have been changing over recent decades. He plots the best available data, and lets the plots tell the story without adding his redundant commentary.
However, If you want, you can still follow links that explains how the data was collected and analyzed. Click on Climate Visualizations at the top of the screen to open a pull-down menu, and then on FAQ and my methods at the bottom of that menu.
Plotting the reality
Four critical variables (the three critical greenhouse gases and global average temperature) show us how our changing climate is progressing.
The collection of graphs shows completely unambiguously that ever more heat energy is being loaded into our planetary climate system to make it hotter and more humid — where heat and humidity are the drivers for all kinds of extreme weather events.
If you look at the most recent years of Rising Temperature (beginning with 2020) you might think temperatures have stopped rising. However, this is almost certainly dangerously wrong. We have just finished an unusual three successive periods of La Niña conditions that result in below average global temperatures. GIven the generally increasing rate of temperature rise, the next El Niño periods are likely to be substantially hotter than the last ones (2014-2019) when Australia suffered the record-breaking bushfires of our Black Summer that even burned temperate rainforests that survived previous fires for many hundreds of years.
What do the graphs tell us?
In the past VoteClimateOne’s Climate Sentinel News has posted many articles attesting to the increasing frequency, extent and ferocity of extreme weather and the increasing chaos and costs these cause.
As the energy in the climate system continues to rise, catastrophes will increasingly overlap such that more damage and chaos will be caused by following events before recovery from earlier ones is complete. We are already seeing examples of this in NSW’s Northern Rivers and southwestern areas. At some point (in the not distant future — if global warming is not reversed) the still growing social and physical costs will lead to social and physical collapse of society.
Can you do something to change the picture?
At this point both major political parties in the NSW government are still defending and even subsidizing the fossil fuel industry’s (coal and gas) continuing increasing emissions of greenhouse gases.
It is time for you to help elect a government able to act effectively against the climate emergency by ensuring neither party has a majority to do things without people’s support. Hard-right members in either party who will do deals with anyone to stay in power to enforce their religiofascist dogmas tend to ignore even stark objective realities such as the climate crisis shown by Earth’s vital sighs. Such people need to be replaced by electing teals, other community-oriented independents and Greens who accept the reality of the climate emergency and are willing to prioritize acting on it.
My Climate Sentinel News article, Is Premier Perrettet a far-right puppet, or the puppet master?, documents and explains how the kind of ultra dogmatic hard-right politicians got into power that most need to be replaced by parliamentarians who will represent and work for the voters’ benefits. As the now deceased Lyenko Urbanchich, ex MLC David Clarke, federal Senator Alex Hawke, the Tudehope family and the Perrottet family have shown on the far right of the NSW Liberal Party, if your faction can fill key positions in party and factional organizations with collaborators who can organize cadres of ‘storm troops’, it is easy to put whoever the faction ‘leader(s)’ may want into Parliament. The party’s ‘safest’ seats are taken over by using the cadres to subvert preselections by branch stacking and simple thuggery or by bypassing preselection entirely with direct appointments (as has been demonstrated many times over the 40 years of history covered in my article).
Here I focused on the Liberal hard-right. But it should be recognized that Labor also has had and probably still has a very similar hard-right. This was made most evident in the impact Bob Santamaria had on the Labor Party in the 1950’s that led to it a near-lethal split to form the Democratic Labor Party. I have not had the time to adequately research the NSW Labor Party, but its leader, Chris Minns shares many characteristics with Dominic Perrottet, and has even backed and defended him over the treatment of climate protester Violet Coco. Like the Liberals, Labor also safe seats giving factions many opportunities to subvert real democracy. To me this is more than enough reason for VoteClimateOne to advise voters in such seats not to vote for factional puppets in hopes of making the seat marginal. Even if you don’t get rid of the puppet this time, you may be given a real opportunity in the next election to preselect someone actually representing you (rather than someone dogma) in the next election.
How to vote?
We won’t suggest who you should vote for. However we try to show you in our NSW voting guides where we think each candidate in your electorate stands relative to action on the climate emergency and whether we think there are reasons a particular candidate might be considered to be a puppet or less trustworthy on issues than others in the electorate. These recommendations won’t be complete or final until we have had a chance to work our way through those on the ballots provided by the Electoral Commission.
Featured image
Featured image from Dettre, M., (18/08/2022). Lismore City News, Questions over NSW flood victims’ buyback / More than a thousand people lost homes in the NSW Northern Rivers floods. (Darren England/AAP PHOTOS).
Health Minister Minster Mark Butler says ongoing trauma can manifest in increased rates of anxiety, post-traumatic stress and domestic and family violence: “Mental health is one of the government’s highest priorities and I recognise that these flooding events have been hugely traumatic for many people,” he said…. For some of these communities, this has been their fourth flood in 18 months.”
Views expressed in this post are those of its author(s), not necessarily all Vote Climate One members.
